The first Saturday in May is nearly here, and with it comes one of the most exciting questions in sports:
Who’s going to win the Kentucky Derby?
For 150 years, fans, bettors, and racing enthusiasts have tried to crack the code on how to pick a winner in the world’s most famous horse race. The Kentucky Derby has become more than just a race—it’s an American tradition filled with pageantry, unpredictability, and a touch of magic that even Houdini would admire.
The Challenge of Winning the Derby
Winning a horse race is never easy, but winning the Kentucky Derby is a rare feat. That iconic blanket of roses isn’t handed out lightly—it’s earned through grit, timing, and often a bit of luck. So how does one decide who to bet on? Is it the trainer, the jockey, the bloodlines, or maybe just a gut feeling?
Well, let’s talk trends.
Trends Worth Noting
In recent years, Derby winners have bucked traditional expectations:
- The past five winners did not enter the Derby off a victory.
- Both the trainers and jockeys of those winners were tasting Derby success for the first time.
- All five winners went off at double-digit odds.
Contrast that with the previous eight winners:
- Six were post-time favorites.
- All came into Churchill Downs off wins.
Historically, since 1908, the favorite has won 35% of the time. But four of the five biggest longshots in Derby history have triumphed in just the past 20 years. If that tells us anything, it’s this:
The Kentucky Derby is predictably unpredictable.
This Year’s Top Contenders
Several talented horses are making strong cases for themselves in 2025:
- 📰 Journalism – Riding a four-race win streak, including the Santa Anita Derby.
- 🌪️ Tiztastic – A Kentucky Downs graduate who dazzled in the Louisiana Derby.
- 😴 Sandman – Anything but sleepy after a solid win in the Arkansas Derby.
- ⚾ Rodriguez – Knocked it out of the park in the Wood Memorial.
- 🛣️ Tappan Street – Zoomed into contention after a breakout Florida Derby performance.
- 🌿 Burnham Square – Mowed down the competition in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.
Last year’s surprise winner, Mystik Dan, paid out big at 18-to-1. So, can lightning strike twice in 2025?
Our Top Pick: Coal Battle
This year, our eyes are on Coal Battle.
- 🐴 Sired by Coal Front
- 🧠 Trained by Lonnie Briley
- 🏁 Finished third in the Arkansas Derby
- 🔥 Had four consecutive wins before that
- ⚡ Known for versatility and explosive acceleration
In a race as competitive and chaotic as the Derby, those qualities can be game-changing.
Bet Strategy & Final Thoughts
Looking to play the superfecta? Last year’s $1 superfecta paid a whopping $8,254—so it’s worth dreaming big.
Here’s our suggested superfecta ticket:
- Coal Battle
- Tiztastic
- Burnham Square
- Journalism
The Kentucky Derby is more than just two minutes of racing—it’s a celebration of history, heart, and hope.
Got a hunch? Bet a bunch. Back a horse and get paid!
Want more racing insights and coverage?
Check out Danny Brewer’s Horse Racing Scoop at horseracingscoop.com and follow the action on YouTube.
Photo Credit: McCarlee Perkins.