BREEDERS’ CUP NEVER A BEAR AND THAT’S NO BULL
If you are looking for a little financial advice perhaps you should forget about Merrill Lynch and focus on your friendly handicapper. After all, the history of the Breeders’ Cup tells us opportunities to earn are in abundance and the opening bell will ring come November 2 at Churchill Downs.
The World Thoroughbred Championships are fantastic for many reasons. We are going to explore one of the things that makes this two-day event one of the best things ever. Let’s face a little reality…everybody likes a little extra cheddar in their pocket. For that very fact the Breeders’ Cup is Mount Everest in the sporting world’s landscape. There will be more cheese at Churchill than in the state of Wisconsin during these 14 races. Question is…how can this be?
The level of competition is so high at the Breeders’ Cup, it is not uncommon for the winner to come home at a nice price. With a total of $30 million in purse money, the best are coming out in every division. Now, we understand than in any horse race anywhere they all can win, but that is especially true here. Of the 13 winners at the 2017 Cup run at Del Mar, a $2 win wager returned an average of $30.72. A winning ticket in the pick 6 on Saturday last year yielded $388,423.60. Wonder if E.F.Hutton can yield those type of returns???
With a record 221 horses pre-entered for this year’s event, the same can absolutely hold true for 2018. Of course the question is how are you making cheese instead of just cutting cheese? Obviously the answer is all in the selection process. Playing horses “across the board” can be lucrative on days like these as when a longer shot finishes in the top three (win, place, show) it can mean provolone. The exotic wagers often times makes for even better cheddar as an exacta, trifecta, and superfecta can be “day-makers” on just one ticket. With soooooo many great athletes toeing the track it will not be easy to find the bull, but my oh my if you do.
Perhaps a few hints as we run from the bear. A propensity for the track is always a good thing. With this year’s event at Churchill Downs, a horse for the course is always good. Tracks play differently and past success beneath the Twin Spires is always a good sign. The West coast tracks are more front-end speed favoring so depending on running style, use a little Edward Jones in analyzing the home track of the entrant. Having a runner on the rise is another thing to watch for. A horse does not necessarily have to be coming in on a winning streak, but like any athlete, you want them to be peaking at the right time. As in any sport, the entrants go through peaks and valleys so watch for strong works and good efforts in past races. Lastly, do not overlook the human element. Certain trainers and certain jockeys can be hot or cold as well. Good stock is certainly a starting point, but the conditioner and the pilot can play a factor as well.
So who are a few that might fit the bill? Let’s find out if we are full of bull here. On November 2 it will be all the two-year old races and with the Juveniles it can be a little dicey. With not a lot of past to play on big payoffs are highly possible. Henley’s Joy in the Juvenile Turf is 8-1 on the morning line and he has been impressive in 3 starts. Restless Rider will not be a big longshot and is 9-2 on the morning line in the Juvenile Fillies but she has 3 wins in 4 starts with two victories at Churchill. November 3 has 9 races and a plethora of opportunities. The Filly and Mare Sprint has Finley’sluckycharmat 10-1 on the morning line and this daughter of Twirling Candy has won 6 of 7 lifetime starts at Churchill. Next Shares is coming into the Mile on a 2 race win streak and is 10-1 on the morning line for trainer Richard Baltas. The $6 million Classic is really a wide open race and we think Pavel is worth a play here. The Doug O’Neill trained son of Creative Cause is 20-1 on the morning line and he won impressively back in June beneath the Twin Spires.
As is the case with any wager, there are no guarantees, but the bull will be at the Breeders’ Cup…if you invest wisely…best of luck!